Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2003
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, the largest of which was a C2 at 0606 UTC.
Solar X-ray images clearly show that the source for all of these
events was a new active region just behind the East limb at about
S15. A 17 degree filament near S11E02 disappeared between 0223 UTC
and 1137 UTC. All of the active regions on the disk were stable and
quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor
storm period at high latitudes. Solar wind data indicate the
presence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, but there is a chance
for some active periods. Effects from the halo CME of 30 January
are expected to arrive some time around midday tomorrow and should
increase levels to active through the second day. Conditions should
decline to unsettled to slightly active on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 31 Jan 120
- Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 125/125/130
- 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 018/026
- Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 014/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 010/015-025/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/40/35
- Minor storm 20/25/15
- Major-severe storm 05/15/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/40/35
- Minor storm 30/35/30
- Major-severe storm 15/15/05
