Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1138
(N12W70) produced a C1 flare at 31/0425Z associated with a Type II
radio sweep (estimated shock velocity 875 km/s) and a
non-Earth-directed CME. New Region 1140 (N32E67) produced a B9 flare
at 31/1934Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (01 – 03 January) with a chance for
isolated C-class flares from Region 1140.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (01 – 03 January).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 091
Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 092/090/088
90 Day Mean 31 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01