Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Dec 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
January 1, 2007
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 933 (S02E66) produced a C1/Sf flare at 31/1717Z. This region is classified as a DAO beta sunspot group. A very slow CME off the west limb was first observed on LASCO imagery at 30/2230Z. This CME appears to be back-sided and is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 01 January. Unsettled to minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods at high latitudes, are expected on 02 and 03 January, due a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 31 Dec 083
  • Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 085/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/002
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 003/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 005/005-015/025-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/30/30
  • Minor storm 05/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/40/40
  • Minor storm 05/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.