Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions. On 01 and 02 January, unsettled to active conditions are possible due to CME activity from 29 December. On 03 January, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 31 Dec 087
• Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 008/009
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 010/012-010/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/15
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/15
• Minor storm 20/20/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01