Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Dec 2002
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only a few B-class
subflares were observed. New Region 240 (S06E20) emerged on the disk
today as a small D-type sunspot region. All three spotted regions on
the disk are simple and less than 100 millionths in area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days, with a slight
chance for some isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 31 Dec 115
- Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 115/115/115
- 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 009/015
- Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 007/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
