Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Aug 2003
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 442 (S13W47)
produced a long duration C1 at 31/0622Z. LASCO imagery indicated a
CME off the southwest limb associated with this flare. None of the
other regions currently on the visible disk have shown any
significant changes or activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed has been in steady decline throughout the day and is down to
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Late on day one to
early on day two, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
rotate into a geoeffective position. Active to minor storm levels
are expected on day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 31 Aug 110
- Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 115/115/115
- 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 012/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/40/30
- Minor storm 15/25/20
- Major-severe storm 05/15/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/45/40
- Minor storm 20/30/25
- Major-severe storm 10/25/15
