Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Aug 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
August 31, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 442 (S13W47)
produced a long duration C1 at 31/0622Z. LASCO imagery indicated a
CME off the southwest limb associated with this flare. None of the
other regions currently on the visible disk have shown any
significant changes or activity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed has been in steady decline throughout the day and is down to
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Late on day one to
early on day two, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
rotate into a geoeffective position. Active to minor storm levels
are expected on day two and day three.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 31 Aug 110
  • Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 115/115/115
  • 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 012/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/025-020/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/40/30
  • Minor storm 15/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/15/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/45/40
  • Minor storm 20/30/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/25/15

SpaceRef staff editor.