Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Aug 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 95 (N07E51)
was responsible for the majority of today's flare activity.  The
largest was a C9/Sf flare that occurred at 31/1956 UTC. 
White-light imagery depicts a steady growth in this groups
intermediate spots and associated penumbral coverage.  Analysis
suggest that there may be several delta configurations contained in
this beta-gamma-delta magnetically structured group.  Region 87
(S08W47) showed slight growth this period and remains a beta-gamma
magnetic complex.  New Regions 97 (N13E36) and 98 (S10E76) were
assigned today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Regions 87 and 95 have the potential to produce an
isolated major flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active conditions were observed at both middle and high
latitudes.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 180
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep  180/175/165
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  008/010-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01