Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1109 (N21W39)
produced several B-class events. Region 1109 has decreased in areal
coverage and extent and is now a Dhi group with a beta magnetic
configuration. Region 1110 (N19W60) has also decreased in areal
coverage and is now a Bxo group with a beta magnetic configuration.
Region 1111 (N24E42) is an A-type group with one spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class activity likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (01-02 October). Mostly
quiet with a slight chance for isolated unsettled periods are
expected for day three (03 October) due to recurrent activity.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 090
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 087/087/084
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01