Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1027 (N23W76) has
decreased in size and spot number and currently indicates an alpha
magnetic configuration as it approaches the west limb. No
significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period observed during the period 30/1200Z – 1500Z. Observations
from the ACE spacecraft indicated the possible arrival of a weak
co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal
hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (01 October) due to a
weak coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet levels are expected for
days two and three (02-03 October).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 072
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 072/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/007-005/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01