Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Sep 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. Unsettled to active conditions predominated from the start of the day through 1200Z due to continued effects of a high speed stream. However, a clear downward trend in solar wind speed began at about 0800Z and geomagnetic conditions were quiet from 1200Z through the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (01-02 October), and partway through the third day (03 October). However, an increase to unsettled to active levels is expected around mid-day on 03 October as a small coronal hole will be rotating into geoeffective position at that time.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Sep 065
- Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 067/067/067
- 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 024/026
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 014/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/008-007/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/30
- Minor storm 05/05/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/10/30
- Minor storm 05/05/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
