Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 915 (S06W59) has developed into a Dso beta magnetic sunspot group. It was the source for a B7.2 x-ray flare which occurred at 30/1703Z. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. Active conditions are due to the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels early in the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible on 01 October due to a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 and 03 October.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Sep 078
• Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 080/080/085
• 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 015/015-008/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/20/15
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/20/20
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 11/01/01