Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Sep 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 30 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 812 (S03W20) was quiescent. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed has increased steadily during the day from about 360 km/s to about 420 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Sep 072
• Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 070/070/075
• 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 007/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 008/015-008/012-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 20/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05