Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Sep 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Sep 30 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. All activity regions
currently on the disk are small and magnetically simple. New Region
677 (N02E09) was numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Sep 088
• Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 090/090/095
• 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 005/005-005/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05