Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Sep 2003
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W62) was
responsible for numerous C-class flares, including a C5.4/1f at
29/2146 UTC. New Region 471 (S07E63) was numbered today. It
emerged from behind the east limb and produced a C4.9/Sf at 30/2021
UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 464 has the potential for C- and M-class
flares. Region 471 may also produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels. There exists an isolated chance
of unsettled to active conditions from a CME arrival related to an
erupting filament on 28 Sep.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
- Class M 45/45/45
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Sep 133
- Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/125/125
- 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 004/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/35
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
