Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1598 (S11W51)
produced a B8 flare at 0137Z. A filament eruption occurred from
0640Z to 0855Z near S32E07 with a heliographic extent of 24 degrees.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for low level activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (31 October), increasing to a
chance for active levels with the arrival of the 27 and 28 October
CMEs late in the day. Unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storm levels are expected on day 2 (1 November) from CME effects.
On day 3 (2 November) conditions are expected to decline to quiet to
unsettled with a chance for active as CME effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 106
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 010/012-015/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/45/20
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/60/25