Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N20W72)
produced several B-class flares. The largest of these was a B6 flare
at 30/1333Z. Region 1117 continued to show decreases in areal
coverage and sunspot count. New Region 1120 (N39E69) was classified
as a Bxo-beta spot group and produced a B2/Sf flare at 30/0728Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels, with a slight chance for an M-class event
from Region 1117.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with a single period
of unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet, with unsettled periods possible
at high latitudes late on day one (31 October). Activity is expected
to increase to quiet to active levels, with a slight chance for a
minor storm period at high latitudes, on day two (01 November) due
to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
levels, with active periods at high latitudes, are expected on day
three (02 October).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 085
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 084/082/080
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 005/008-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/25/20
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/30/25
Minor storm 01/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01