Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1029 (N16W84)
produced two B-class flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. This
increase in activity was most likely the result of a sector boundary
crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (31 October – 02
November).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 075
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 075/075/073
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01