Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field began the day with a brief episode of minor storming but quickly subsided to quiet to unsettled conditions as the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream diminished. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field conditions are expected to range from quiet to unsettled on day one (October 31), becoming predominantly quiet for the remainder of the period (November 1-2).

III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Oct 067
• Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 008/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01