Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3
flare that occurred at 30/2028Z from Region 1364 (S17E60). Growth
was observed in Regions 1361 (N18W06) and 1362 (N06E36). A coronal
mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
29/2312Z. The event was seen in STEREO B COR 2 imagery at 30/0110Z
and determined to be a farside event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field reached quiet to active conditions with minor
and major storm periods observed at high latitudes. Activity was
attributed to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) at
approximately 30/0810Z followed by a prolonged period of southward
Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (01-03
December). There is still a possibility of coronal hole high speed
stream effects from the southern polar extension coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 144
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 145/140/135
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 008/008-007/008-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 08/08/05
Minor storm 02/02/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 16/15/13
Major-severe storm 11/08/07