Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
A CME from the NE quadrant was observed in SDO/AIA images at
approximately 30/1830 UTC. Further analysis is required to
determine if the CME will be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity from Region 1130 (N12W27).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (01-02 Dec) as the
effects from a coronal hole high-speed stream continue to subside.
Quiet to unsettled conditions with a slight chance for isolated
active periods are expected on day three (03 Dec) due to possible
effects from a CME associated with the disappearing filament
observed early on 29 November.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 086
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 086/088/090
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01