Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted of a few, low-level B-class flares, all from Region 927 (N10E19). The delta configuration reported yesterday appears to have decayed during the past 24 hours. Region 926 (S10E09) was quiet and stable. New Region 928 (S07W32) emerged on the disk today as a small C-type group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during the past 24 hours. An initially quiet field became disturbed after 0500Z due to an extended period of southward interplanetary magnetic field. Active to minor storm levels were observed initially but there was a strong substorm interval from 0800-1000Z which increased the level to major storm at some mid-latitude stations and severe storm at some high latitude sites. Conditions have been at active to minor storm levels since 1000Z. Solar wind signatures appear to be most consistent with a solar sector boundary crossing, which was also seen 27 days ago during the last solar rotation. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24 hours (1 December) as the current disturbance subsides. Conditions should be predominantly quiet for the second and third days (2-3 December).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Nov 084
• Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 020/030
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 007/015-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05