Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 30, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 30 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 508
(S19W71) produced several low level B and C-class flares during the
period. This region has undergone very little change over the past
24 hours. Region 507 (N07W82) was quiescent throughout the period
and has begun to rotate off the west limb. Region 517 (S07E67) was
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Ace data
indicated that a weak recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
became geoeffective early in the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through 01 Dec. The
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to wane by 02
Dec. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 03 Dec, with isolated active periods possible at higher

III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec

  • Class M 20/20/10
  • Class X 05/05/01
  • Proton 05/05/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 30 Nov 153
  • Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 145/130/130
  • 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 010/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 012/015-008/010-006/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec

  • A. Middle Latitudes
  • Active 25/20/10
  • Minor storm 15/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/25
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.