Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only flare activity was a B8/Sf at 1125 UTC from newly
numbered Region 209 (S20E62). Region 207 (S19E31) continues to be
the largest group on the disk but was quiet and stable. New Region
210 (S09W77) emerged during the past 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 207.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active. Solar
wind speeds continue to be enhanced, and the Z-component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continues to hold at weakly negative
values. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a high speed
coronal hole driven solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next three days due to
continued effects from the high speed solar wind stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 146
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  145/155/160
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  015/015-015/020-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10