Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 May 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
May 31, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1073 (N13E21),
1074 (N17W72), and 1075 (S20W16) have remained stable with no
significant change. No flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream
around 30/1530Z. The solar wind speed increased to an average of
500 km/s with the IMF Bz starting a southward trend averaging around
-8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with possible isolated
minor storm conditions, for the next two days (31 May-01 June) due
to the continued influence from the coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (02 June).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 073
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 074/073/072
90 Day Mean 30 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 015/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 015/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 015/025-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.