Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 886 (N08W53) developed during the past 24 hours and is now a Cro Beta group with a size of 40 millionths. Region 891 (S13E19) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor storm period from 1200 – 1500 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 May. Mostly unsettled condtions with active periods are expected on 01 – 02 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 May 080
• Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 30 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 010/015-015/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10