Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 May 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
May 30, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 May 30 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 771 (N24W33)
was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm conditions.
Heightened activity was due to the resulting effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream and CME activity from 26
May. Though the solar wind speed at ACE was relatively low, Bz
remained steadily south at approximately 15 nT for several hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on
31 May. Conditions are expected to abate until a possible weak
coronal hole high speed stream will move into geoeffective position
on 02 May.

III. Event Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 30 May 095
  • Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 095/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 30 May 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 016/022
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 025/060
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 012/018-008/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/25
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.