Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 30, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 30 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S09W72)
produced a single C1.2 flare at 30/1934 UTC. Region 618 has
decreased slightly in magnetic complexity and is in a beta-gamma
configuration. New region 622 (S12E72) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 618 and 621 (S15E51) may produce C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active and isolated minor
storm conditions possible for the next three days as a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun

  • Class M 40/30/10
  • Class X 05/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 30 May 100
  • Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 100/100/090
  • 90 Day Mean 30 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 012/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 012/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 015/015-015/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/20
  • Minor storm 20/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 30/30/25
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.