Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 May 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 May 30 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S09W72)
produced a single C1.2 flare at 30/1934 UTC. Region 618 has
decreased slightly in magnetic complexity and is in a beta-gamma
configuration. New region 622 (S12E72) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 618 and 621 (S15E51) may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active and isolated minor
storm conditions possible for the next three days as a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
- Class M 40/30/10
- Class X 05/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 May 100
- Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 100/100/090
- 90 Day Mean 30 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 012/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 012/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/20
- Minor storm 20/20/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 30/30/25
- Major-severe storm 15/15/10