Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted of several B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 865 (S13E32) including the largest, a B9/Sf at 1517Z. Region 865 is showing slow growth and is currently a 140 millionths D-type sunspot group. Region 866 (S08E56) managed to produce a B7 flare at 1709 UTC but was otherwise quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 865 sometime during the next three days (31 Mar – 2 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (31 Mar – 1 Apr) and is expected to be generally unsettled by the third day (2 Apr).

III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Mar 084
• Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 10/10/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05