Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Mar 2003
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Weak C-class flares were
observed in Regions 321 (N05W03) and 323 (S08W15). The rapid growth
and considerable C-class activity observed yesterday in Regions 318
(S13W34) and 323 has ended. Region 323, the more impressive of the
two, evolved into a beta-gamma region with near 250 millionths of
white light areal coverage. No significant developments were
observed in the remainder of the disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare from Regions 321 or
323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind signatures early this
period indicate a transition from transient flow to a high speed
coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed began the period near 400
km/s, but gradually increased to near 650 km/s by end of period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods. A coronal hole high speed stream will buffet the
magnetosphere for most of the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
- Class M 40/35/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Mar 155
- Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 155/150/150
- 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 017/027
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 015/020-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/35/40
- Minor storm 20/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 50/45/50
- Minor storm 30/25/30
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
