Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E17)
produced two impulsive M1 flares at 30/1252Z and 30/1832Z. Region
1514 (S15E15) produced several C-class events during the period.
Region 1515 (S16E30) continued to grow and is now an Ekc-type region
with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and an area of 380
millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days (01-03
July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was active during the past 24 hours due to
effects from the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) that arrived
in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Increased solar wind speeds, temperature and density were observed
at the ACE spacecraft around 30/0200Z along with an increase in
total field strength to approximately 10 nT. Density began to
decrease at approximately 30/1600Z while solar wind speeds continued
to increase (reaching 700 km/s at the time of this report)
indicating the transition from the CIR to the CH HSS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to
be unsettled to active during the next three days (01-03 July) with
a chance for isolated minor storm periods due to effects from the
favorably positioned CH HSS.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 124
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 015/018-013/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/35/35