Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be initially quiet on day one (1 July), becoming
unsettled late in the day. Days 2 and 3 (2 – 3 July) are expected
to remain unsettled. The increase in activity is forecast due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 089
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 087/087/087
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 007/008-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05