Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 June 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
June 30, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low throughout the forecast period (01-03 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with an isolated
minor storm at high latitudes observed from 00-03Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods for day
1 (01 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected
for days 2 and 3 (02-03 July) as the effects from the coronal hole
high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 074
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.