Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 961 (S12E09) has developed in size and complexity, but has not produced any significant activity. Region 962 (S10E37) has decayed into a simple Alpha-class spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of an isolated C-class flare from Region 961.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has been steadily decreasing, but remains slightly elevated due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (01 – 03 July).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Jun 074
• Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 005/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01