Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 1, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 30 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Regions 782 (S17W04)
and 783 (S02E45) exhibited moderate growth, and both maintained a
beta magnetic configuration. New Region 785 (S18E21) was numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 782 and 783 may produce C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
at ACE has remained below 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with an isolated chance of minor
storm activity, on 1-2 July as a coronal hole solar wind stream
reaches geoeffective position. Activity should subside to
quiet-unsettled conditions on 3 July.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 30 Jun 103
  • Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 100/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 004/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 005/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/020-012/020-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/15
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/25
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.