Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Regions 782 (S17W04)
and 783 (S02E45) exhibited moderate growth, and both maintained a
beta magnetic configuration. New Region 785 (S18E21) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 782 and 783 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
at ACE has remained below 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with an isolated chance of minor
storm activity, on 1-2 July as a coronal hole solar wind stream
reaches geoeffective position. Activity should subside to
quiet-unsettled conditions on 3 July.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Jun 103
- Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 100/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 005/006
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/15
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 15/15/10
