Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jun 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jun 30 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 640 (S07E41) at 30/1439Z. Region 640 is a small simple
beta group in decay. Occasional B-class flares occurred in Region
639 (N13E46). This region also exhibited some decay this period. A
long duration B-class x-ray enhancement was associated with plage
brightenings near an active dark filament at S06W06.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Regions 639
and 640.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A coronal hole high speed stream that began on 28 June is
responsible for this weak disturbance. Solar wind speed ranged from
520 to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Cla
- ss M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Jun 082
- Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 080/080/085
- 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 015/020
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 015/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 012/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
