Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jun 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
June 30, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 30 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 640 (S07E41) at 30/1439Z. Region 640 is a small simple
beta group in decay. Occasional B-class flares occurred in Region
639 (N13E46). This region also exhibited some decay this period. A
long duration B-class x-ray enhancement was associated with plage
brightenings near an active dark filament at S06W06.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Regions 639
and 640.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A coronal hole high speed stream that began on 28 June is
responsible for this weak disturbance. Solar wind speed ranged from
520 to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

  • ss M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 30 Jun 082
  • Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 015/020
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 012/015-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/25
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.