Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jun 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
June 30, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jun 30 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The highlight of the period was
a very long duration, C2 X-ray event that began around 0915Z, peaked
at 1257Z, and ended at 1625Z. This event was associated with an
impressive coronal mass ejection off the SE limb, near Region 19
(S18E61). This event followed another CME associated with a filament
eruption from near S40W10. Neither CME appears earthbound. Region
19 is a moderately complex spot group with a white light area of
over 400 millionths. Region 17 (S19W23) has also increased in size
and appears to have developed some magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Regions 17 and 19.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetical field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high
latitude active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods during local nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 147
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 012/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.