Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jun 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jun 30 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z

to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The highlight of the period was

a very long duration, C2 X-ray event that began around 0915Z, peaked

at 1257Z, and ended at 1625Z. This event was associated with an

impressive coronal mass ejection off the SE limb, near Region 19

(S18E61). This event followed another CME associated with a filament

eruption from near S40W10.  Neither CME appears earthbound. Region

19 is a moderately complex spot group with a white light area of

over 400 millionths. Region 17 (S19W23) has also increased in size

and appears to have developed some magnetic complexity.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue

at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from

Regions 17 and 19.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetical field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high

latitude active periods.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated

active periods during local nighttime hours.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Jun 147

Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  145/145/140

90 Day Mean        30 Jun 173

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  005/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  012/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  010/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/25/20

Minor storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                35/30/25

Minor storm           15/10/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01