Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1532 (S19E14) and
new Region 1536 (S21E26) were responsible for the highest flares
during the period: a C8/1n flare at 30/1403Z and an M1/Sn at
30/1548Z respectively. Analysis with magnetogram and white light
imagery determined that Region 1532 was actually two separate
regions. New Region 1536 now encompasses the two larger spots
trailing Region 1532. Another new spot group rotated onto the
northeast limb and was numbered Region 1535 (N18E64). No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares. Regions 1532 and 1536 are the
most likely Regions to produce M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with intervals of minor to
major storming observed at high latitudes during the periods ranging
from 30/0600 – 0900Z and from 30/1200 – 1800Z. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 350 to
450 km/s, while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field had prolonged southward intervals near -7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (31 July). Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on day 2 (01 August). By approximately
mid-day on day 3 (02 August), quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected with isolated active periods possible due to effects from
the 28 July CME.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 136
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 008/010-006/006-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/20
Minor storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/05/30