Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N17E22), a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification, produced
an impulsive M9 flare at 0209Z with an associated Tenflare. There
appeared to be no CME associated with the event in LASCO imagery.
Region 1260 (N19W09) has shown consolidation in its trailer spots
and is now classified as a Ehi spot group with a Beta magnetic
configuration. Region 1263 (N18E48) has been relatively stable and
did not produce any significant flaring during the period. New
Region 1265 (N18W41) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with the chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were
likely due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with
the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. ACE signatures
indicate a possible weak CIR onset at approximately 0900Z on 30
July.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active from 31 July to 01 August due to
effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 02 August.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 45/45/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 113
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 012/012-012/012-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/15
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/20
Minor storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/01