Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An asymmetric full halo CME was observed in LASCO data starting at approximately 30/0454Z. This CME is believed to be a backsided event.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active due to a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s at time of issue.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods for the next two days (31 July – 01 August) due to continued coronal hole effects. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 02 August.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Jul 069
• Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 011/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 008/010-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/10
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/15
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01