Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An asymmetric full halo CME was observed in LASCO data starting at approximately 30/0454Z. This CME is believed to be a backsided event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active due to a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s at time of issue.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods for the next two days (31 July – 01 August) due to continued coronal hole effects. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 02 August.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Jul 069
- Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 011/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 008/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/10
- Minor storm 05/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/15
- Minor storm 05/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01