Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jul 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
July 30, 2003
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jul 2003

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 422
(N14W67) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2.5/1b flare
that occurred at 30/0410Z. A Tenflare and several discrete radio
bursts were associated with the event. There were no observed Type
II radio sweeps and LASCO imagery doesn’t depict a resulting CME.
There appears to have been some decay in complexity to this region
overnight and the gamma magnetic structure is no longer evident,
although the majority of the flare activity came from this region
during the period. Region 421 (S08E41) produced a single event
today, a B9.1 x-ray flare that occurred at 30/1014Z. There was some
penumbral loss in spot group and little flare production today, but
the weak gamma magnetic structure remains intact. No new regions
were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 421 and 422 both have a chance of
producing further isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream remains geoeffective. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels throughout the
forecast period. Nighttime sectors may experience isolated minor
storm conditions through the first two days of the interval. The
high speed stream should be in the waning phase by the end of day

III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug

  • Class M 35/35/35
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 30 Jul 099
  • Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 100/100/095
  • 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 024/036
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 020/030
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 020/025-015/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/25
  • Minor storm 20/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/35
  • Minor storm 25/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.