Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N24E16) produced a
single C-class x-ray event during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low over the next 3 days (31 January – 02 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet, until the arrival of a glancing blow
from the limb event CME that occurred in association with the X1/1f
flare on 27 January. The transient passage was observed by the ACE
spacecraft at 30/1554Z with a solar wind speed increase from around
350 km/s to near 450 km/s. A weak sudden impulse measuring 8nT was
observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1635Z. Conditions
afterwards ranged from unsettled to quiet. The greater than 10 MeV
proton that began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu at
28/0205Z was still in progress at the time of this event, with flux
levels hovering near 20 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-3 (31 January – 02 February).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels, as observed by NOAA
GOES-13 in geosynchronous orbit, are expected to decay below the 10
pfu threshold in the next day or two.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 99/50/01
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 114
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 000/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 004/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01