Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 January 2011

By SpaceRef Editor
January 30, 2011
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1150 (S21E37) grew in both area and extent while
developing penumbra on both poles. It was classified as a DAO group
with a beta magnetic classification. A faint partial-halo CME,
visible in STEREO behind C2 imagery at 30/0310Z and LASCO C3 imagery
at 30/1954Z, indicate the CME is earthward directed. SDO/AIA 193
imagery associates this event with the 26 degree filament liftoff
observed yesterday at 29/1219Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (31 January – 02 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next two days
(31 January – 01 February). Quiet to unsettled levels with a chance
for isolated active periods are expected on day three (02 February)
as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 083
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 083/082/082
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.