Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 940 (S04E21) produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region 941 (S06E56) has remained quiescent.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 940.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 650 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods on 31 January. Mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 01-02 February.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Jan 088
• Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 019/036
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 020/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 015/015-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/30/25
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01