Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jan 2003
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The day’s most dramatic
event was the disappearance of a large n-s oriented filament from
the north-central disk at approximately 1000 UTC. This event was
seen as a CME further out in the corona, taking on the appearance of
a partial halo. This ejecta has an earthward component, and is
expected to pass on February 2. Otherwise, little of significance
occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly active levels for the past 24
hours. The solar wind radial speed rose to over 500 km/s during the
day, presumably originating from a coronal hole in the western solar
hemisphere. This feature was present last rotation, but did not
affect the magnetosphere to this degree.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to vary generally from unsettled to active levels. The
current high speed stream is likely to fuel another day of active
conditions, calming on February 1. On February 2, effects of the CME
seen near midday today are expected, bringing another episode of
active conditions, with a good chance of episodes of minor storm.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Jan 121
- Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 125/125/130
- 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 009/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 018/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 015/020-010/010-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/20/40
- Minor storm 10/10/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/30/50
- Minor storm 15/10/25
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
