Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 December 2011

By SpaceRef Editor
December 30, 2011
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class flares were observed from Region 1389 (S22E44), an M2/Sf at 29/2151Z and a M1/Sn at 30/0309Z. The region ended the period as an Ekc type group with beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were stable and magnetically simple.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate levels, particularly from Region 1389, for the next three days (31 December – 02 January). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was near 350 km/s. Bz at ACE was briefly southward to -8 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (31 December), increasing to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions on days two and three (01-02 January). The increase in activity is expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 141
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-008/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.