Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a C1.7 flare observed at 30/2005Z. The most likely origin of the flare was a brightening on the east limb near where old Region 978 (S08, L=223) is expected to return.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low to low. An increasing chance of C-class activity is expected through the forecast period (31 Dec 07 – 2 Jan 08).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
- Class M 01/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Dec 075
- Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 075/075/080
- 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 002/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/00
