Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
January 1, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 933 (S04E78) produced several low level B-flares. The largest was a B3 flare at 30/0240Z. A slow moving CME from the west limb was first observed on LASCO imagery at 29/2130Z, with an estimated plane of sky speed of 181 km/s. This was likely associated with a disappearing solar filament centered near S20W59. A possible glancing blow from this westward-directed CME may arrive beyond the forecast period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 31 December and 1 January. Expect unsettled to minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods possible at high latitudes, on 2 January as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 30 Dec 080
  • Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 085/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 001/002
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-005/005-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/40
  • Minor storm 05/05/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/10

SpaceRef staff editor.