Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2005
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 843 (N12E15) produced a C1 flare at 29/2106 UTC. At 29/2118 UTC, LASCO C3 imagery showed a partial halo CME. This CME seemed to originate from an eruptive filament located southeast of center disk. The majority of the ejecta appeared to be directed to the southeast.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 December. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 01 and 02 January due to the possible arrival of the CME from 29 December.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Dec 090
- Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 090/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 007/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/008-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/25/25
- Minor storm 05/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/30
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
