Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 30 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 528 (N10W78)
produced a C1 flare at 1940Z near the west limb. Two small solar
filaments lifted off the visible disk during the past twenty-four
hours; an eight degree filament disappeared near N23E01 and a ten
degree filament disappeared near S21W04.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. An
isolated period of unsettled activity was observed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods
are possible on 01 January due to a coronal hole high speed stream
rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
- Class M 10/05/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Dec 108
- Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 100/095/085
- 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 010/015-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/30/25
- Minor storm 05/15/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/40/35
- Minor storm 10/20/10
- Major-severe storm 05/15/05
