Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 30, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 30 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 528 (N10W78)
produced a C1 flare at 1940Z near the west limb. Two small solar
filaments lifted off the visible disk during the past twenty-four
hours; an eight degree filament disappeared near N23E01 and a ten
degree filament disappeared near S21W04.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. An
isolated period of unsettled activity was observed.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods
are possible on 01 January due to a coronal hole high speed stream
rotating into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan

  • Class M 10/05/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 30 Dec 108
  • Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 100/095/085
  • 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 004/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 010/015-020/030-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/30/25
  • Minor storm 05/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/40/35
  • Minor storm 10/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/15/05

SpaceRef staff editor.