Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2002
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Activity
was limited to several very minor low level B-class flares. At the
time of this writing there are three regions exhibiting spots in
white light, all of them small and simply structured. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active
conditions were the result of a favorably positioned coronal hole
that is in it’s waning stage. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one due to the elevated solar wind
speed (approximately 500 km/sec).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Dec 114
- Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 115/115/115
- 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 008/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 012/013
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 008/010-005/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
